Death scenarios: Astronomers attempt to determine the future of exoplanets

Astronomers from Macquarie University have confirmed the gradual approach of the massive exoplanet TOI-2109b toward its star. This could end in three different scenarios. 

Hotter than many stars

TOI-2109b orbits a yellow-white star of spectral class F, located 870 light-years from Earth. It is a gas giant whose mass is approximately five times that of Jupiter.

Ultra-hot Jupiter in an artist’s impression. Source: International Gemini Observatory/NOIRLab/NSF/AURA/J. Pollard

The exoplanet attracted the attention of astronomers due to the extreme characteristics of its orbit. It passes at a distance of only 2.67 million km from the surface of the star. By comparison, Mercury never comes closer than 46 million km to the Sun. TOI-2109b completes one orbit around its star in just 16 hours. To date, this is the shortest orbital period among all known ultra-hot gas giants.

Due to its proximity to the star, the atmosphere of TOI-2109b is heated to extreme temperatures. According to astronomers’ estimates, the temperature on its daytime side reaches 3,360 °C, which is higher than the surface temperature of many stars. The night side of TOI-2109b is approximately a thousand degrees colder.

Three scenarios for the death of the gas giant

Nothing good awaits TOI-2109b in the future. After analyzing data on its transits collected by ground-based telescopes and the TESS and CHEOPS satellites between 2010 and 2014, astronomers discovered slight changes in the exoplanet’s orbit. 

Schematic representation of TOI-2109b, illustrating its main physical and orbital parameters. Source: The Astrophysical Journal (2025). DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/ade057

Both theoretical models and observations independently show that the orbital period of TOI-2109b will decrease by at least 10 seconds over the next three years. This confirms the assumption that the exoplanet is gradually approaching its star in a spiral.

Researchers have identified three possible outcomes for TOI-2109b: it could be torn apart by tidal forces, plunge directly into its star, or lose its gas envelope entirely under the influence of intense radiation, leaving only a rocky core. Astronomers suggest that some rocky exoplanets in other star systems may be the stripped cores of former gas giants that underwent a similar process.

In the coming years, astronomers intend to continue observing TOI-2109b to confirm the predicted orbital changes. This may clarify the future fate of a world in agony.

Earlier, we reported on another doomed exoplanet that would be torn apart by its star.

According to Phys.org

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