Quantum computers could break the encryption that protects banking transactions, medical data, and personal correspondence much sooner than previously thought. Google has revised its forecast and now cites 2029 as the target date for transitioning to quantum-resistant protection. CloudFlare, a cloud provider, has announced a similar timeline.
Why has the forecast changed?
A recent study involving researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, Stanford University, and the Ethereum Foundation has shown that breaking elliptic curve cryptography requires approximately 20 times fewer qubits than previously thought. This cryptography protects most blockchain technologies and cryptocurrencies.
This means that the quantum threshold beyond which current security measures become ineffective is significantly lower. The Global Risk Institute in Toronto has published its seventh annual report on quantum threats. The authors assessed the emergence of a cryptographically dangerous quantum computer as “entirely possible” within ten years and “likely” within fifteen.
What is Q-Day?
Q-Day is the moment when a quantum computer will have enough resources and stability to break the cryptography that underpins internet security. This threat was predicted as far back as the 1990s, but new estimates drastically reduce the time we have to prepare.
Conventional computers process information using bits—zeros and ones. Quantum machines use qubits, which exist as a probabilistic combination of 0 and 1 until they are measured. This allows them to process a vast number of possibilities simultaneously and solve mathematical problems that are beyond the capabilities of classical systems.
Data is already at risk
Some cybercriminals are likely already hoarding encrypted data today with the intention of decrypting it once a powerful quantum computer becomes available. Electronic health records containing genetic information are particularly vulnerable because, unlike passwords, DNA cannot be changed.
Wireless medical devices are also at risk. Insulin pumps and pacemakers typically have insufficient power reserves to support modern security protocols. However, the development of quantum-resistant security systems for medical applications is already underway. Seoyoon Jang, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has created a microchip the size of the tip of a fine needle with energy consumption 20–60 times lower than that of existing solutions.
The preparation window is closing
The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has approved algorithms that are resistant to quantum attacks. The U.S. recommends that organizations complete the transition by 2035.
According to the consulting firm McKinsey, more than 90% of companies still do not have a quantum security plan in place. If a quantum computer becomes available before the migration to new security measures is complete, some data will remain vulnerable.
According to edition.cnn.com
