A new study has been published that aims to explain the Fermi paradox: why we see no signs of other extraterrestrial civilizations in space. Perhaps we are simply located within a kind of “Solitude Zone” stretching across space and time.
The Fermi paradox
The Fermi paradox is one of the greatest mysteries of our time: why we cannot hear or see representatives of other civilizations. Recently, Professor Antal Veres from Hungary published a study on this topic, which states that we may be inside a “Solitude Zone.”
The initial data is well known to everyone: space is extremely vast, and the same laws of physics and chemistry apply everywhere in it. Therefore, if intelligent life arose on Earth, why shouldn’t it arise somewhere else? Apparently, there are some filters that prevent this from happening.
To understand the Fermi paradox, scientists created the Drake equation — a series of factors that reflect the main classes of filters that could potentially prevent every star system from having its own life.
There is also something called the Kardashev scale, on which civilizations that use all the energy of their planet are classified as category 1, those that can use all the energy of their star are category 2, those that can use all the energy of their galaxy are category 3, and humanity has not reached even category 1 yet.
“Solitude Zone”
Veres’ new study is another attempt to extract some kind of answer from the Drake equation that will explain at least something, because we can only guess at the meaning of many of the variables in it. He divided all life on a scale from 0, corresponding to the simplest living organisms, to infinity, where civilizations at the top of the Kardashev scale exist, and assessed the probability of their emergence.
Finally, he applied this model to the entire Universe, rather than just our Galaxy, as is usually done. This gave rise to the concept of the “Solitude Zone”: the probability of the simultaneous existence of a single civilization of a certain level is higher than the existence of several or none.
Four possible scenarios could lead to this. In the “Astrobiological Optimism” scenario, which explains “easy” evolution in several worlds, a civilization with humanity’s technological potential would have virtually no chance of being alone in the Universe, as it would be crawling with other civilizations. On the other hand, in the “Evolutionary Hard Step” scenario, which places the Great Filter early in Earth’s historical path, the probability of remaining in the “Solitude Zone” is close to 0, since it is more likely that no life forms exist than that only one exists.
Why are we alone?
However, there is one specific answer to the Fermi paradox that fits this model well: the rare Earth hypothesis. In this scenario, complex life is extremely rare, but not so rare as to be impossible. Conditions on early Earth had to be just perfect for life to evolve, but it’s super unlikely that these conditions would happen by accident on another planet.
This leads to a relatively high probability that we are indeed in the “Solitude Zone” — Dr. Veres estimates this probability to be approximately 29.1%. He even goes further and identifies another scenario in the “sweet spot” of the structure called the Critical Earth Hypothesis, which maximizes the probability that we are alone at 30.3%.
One important conclusion from this exercise is that in no scenario is the probability that we exist in a “Solitude Zone” greater than 50%. It is much more likely that either there are several forms of life at our technological level, or there are none at all. However, the probability of being in this zone increases — and truly advanced civilizations have a more than 50% chance of being alone at any given time.
This model is a useful model for understanding how to think about this fundamental question. However, like all discussions surrounding it, it will inevitably provoke controversy. If there are no unforeseen disruptions in the development of our civilization, perhaps one day we will be able to answer this question definitively. But until then, humanity will continue to wonder whether we really are in the “Solitude Zone.”
According to phys.org
